Trust Size vs Outcome
Does raising more money in a SPAC IPO lead to better outcomes for investors? We analyzed 489 SPACs across five trust size buckets to find out whether bigger really means better — or just a bigger hole to fall into.
Correlation (r)
+0.251
Weak correlation
Best Bucket (Avg)
Mega (>$1B)
Avg return: 129.7%
Worst Bucket (Avg)
Small ($100-250M)
Avg return: -29.7%
SPACs Analyzed
489
With trust size + return data
💡 Key Insight
There's a weak positive correlation (r = 0.251) between trust size and returns — but don't be fooled by averages. While Mega (>$1B) SPACs averaged 129.7% returns, their median was just -1.2% — a few massive winners (like DraftKings or Lucid) skew the data. Meanwhile, Small ($100-250M) SPACs averaged -29.7% with a 12.9% bankruptcy rate. The median return across most buckets is deeply negative. Size doesn't protect you — it just determines the scale of the explosion.
Trust Size vs Return — Every SPAC
Each dot is a SPAC. Hover for details. The dashed line shows the linear trend.
Average Return by Trust Size Bucket
Average and median returns for each trust size bracket. Averages can be misleading — check the median.
Bucket Breakdown
| Bucket | Count | Avg Return | Median Return | Bankruptcy % | Survivor % | Best SPAC | Worst SPAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micro (<$100M) | 175 | +4.7% | -18.2% | 3.4% | 58.3% | PMV Consumer Acquisi… (+4288%) | Near Intelligence (-100%) |
| Small ($100-250M) | 139 | -29.7% | +0.3% | 12.9% | 61.9% | Amprius Technologies (+86.8%) | Quanergy Systems (-100%) |
| Medium ($250-500M) | 99 | -5.9% | -30% | 10.1% | 48.5% | Dave Inc. (+2053.6%) | WeWork (-100%) |
| Large ($500M-1B) | 40 | -14.2% | -59.1% | 12.5% | 42.5% | GeneDx Holdings (+621.4%) | 23andMe (-100%) |
| Mega (>$1B) | 36 | +129.7% | -1.2% | 2.8% | 69.4% | Vertiv Holdings Co (+2460%) | Sonder Holdings (-100%) |
Methodology
We filtered to SPACs with both a known trust size and a calculated return percentage (from SPAC IPO price of ~$10 to current/final price). SPACs were grouped into five buckets: Micro (<$100M), Small ($100-250M), Medium ($250-500M), Large ($500M-1B), and Mega (>$1B). The Pearson correlation coefficient measures the linear relationship between trust size and return.