Projection vs Reality
What SPACs promised investors in their proxy statements vs what they actually delivered.
Source: University of Michigan Ross School of Business · 62 SPACs analyzed
Missed Projections
95%
of 62 SPACs
Median Miss
81.7%
below projected revenue
Total Gap
$57.7B
$79.5B promised → $21.8B delivered
Worst Miss
100%
Joby Aviation
62 SPACs shown
Top 20 Biggest Projection Misses
Projected (cyan) vs Actual (red) revenue in $M
Projected vs Actual Revenue
Points below the diagonal missed projections. Most did.
| Company | Sector | Year | Projected | Actual | Miss %↓ | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joby AviationJOBY | Aerospace/Defense | 2021 | $2.0B | $0M | 100% | -45% |
| Archer AviationACHR | Aerospace/Defense | 2021 | $1.0B | $0M | 100% | -15% |
| Arrival SAARVL | EV/Automotive | 2021 | $14.0B | $1M | 100% | -100% |
| Lilium NVLILM | Aerospace/Defense | 2021 | $1.0B | $0M | 100% | -100% |
| QuantumScapeQS | EV/Automotive | 2020 | $500M | $0M | 100% | -97% |
| CanooGOEV | EV/Automotive | 2020 | $1.8B | $1M | 99.9% | -100% |
| Lordstown MotorsRIDE | EV/Automotive | 2020 | $1.7B | $5M | 99.7% | -100% |
| Virgin GalacticSPCE | Aerospace/Defense | 2019 | $600M | $1.7M | 99.7% | -98.5% |
| REE AutomotiveREE | EV/Automotive | 2021 | $400M | $2M | 99.5% | -98% |
| MomentusMNTS | Aerospace/Defense | 2020 | $200M | $1M | 99.5% | -100% |
| Astra SpaceASTR | Aerospace/Defense | 2021 | $300M | $4M | 98.7% | -98.8% |
| HeliogenHLGN | Clean Energy | 2021 | $200M | $3M | 98.5% | -100% |
| NikolaNKLA | EV/Automotive | 2020 | $3.2B | $50M | 98.4% | -100% |
| Wejo GroupWEJO | Technology | 2021 | $300M | $5M | 98.3% | -100% |
| AEyeLIDR | Technology | 2021 | $300M | $5M | 98.3% | -95% |
| Advent TechnologiesADN | Clean Energy | 2021 | $150M | $8M | 94.7% | -97% |
| FiskerFSR | EV/Automotive | 2020 | $4.2B | $272M | 93.5% | -100% |
| ViewVIEW | Real Estate | 2020 | $800M | $54M | 93.3% | -100% |
| Innoviz TechnologiesINVZ | Technology | 2021 | $200M | $15M | 92.5% | -85% |
| Banzai InternationalBNZI | Technology | 2023 | $50M | $4M | 92% | -98% |
| SatellogicSATL | Aerospace/Defense | 2021 | $100M | $8M | 92% | -88% |
| Danimer ScientificDNMR | Industrials | 2020 | $500M | $48M | 90.4% | -99.2% |
| Better Home & FinanceBETR | Fintech | 2021 | $1.4B | $145M | 89.6% | -99.5% |
| XosXOS | EV/Automotive | 2021 | $800M | $86M | 89.3% | -95% |
| GetaroundGETR | EV/Automotive | 2022 | $400M | $45M | 88.8% | -99% |
| Offerpad SolutionsOPAD | Real Estate | 2021 | $4.0B | $470M | 88.3% | -65% |
| SkillzSKLZ | Media/Entertainment | 2020 | $800M | $95M | 88.1% | -99.7% |
| LatchLTCH | Real Estate | 2021 | $300M | $42M | 86% | -100% |
| Butterfly NetworkBFLY | Healthcare | 2020 | $500M | $72M | 85.6% | -92% |
| Greenidge Generation HoldingsGREE | Fintech | 2021 | $300M | $55M | 81.7% | -97.5% |
| OwletOWLT | Healthcare | 2021 | $300M | $60M | 80% | -95% |
| Ginkgo BioworksDNA | Healthcare | 2021 | $1.0B | $249M | 75.1% | -97.5% |
| ChargePoint HoldingsCHPT | EV/Automotive | 2020 | $2.0B | $507M | 74.7% | -91% |
| Clover HealthCLOV | Healthcare | 2021 | $3.0B | $870M | 71% | -74.4% |
| Cazoo GroupCZOO | EV/Automotive | 2021 | $4.0B | $1.2B | 70% | -100% |
| Cipher MiningCIFR | Fintech | 2021 | $500M | $150M | 70% | -73% |
| Blink ChargingBLNK | EV/Automotive | 2018 | $500M | $150M | 70% | -97.7% |
| Hippo HoldingsHIPO | Fintech | 2021 | $600M | $182M | 69.7% | -82% |
| Bridger AerospaceBAER | Aerospace/Defense | 2022 | $200M | $65M | 67.5% | -90% |
| Bird GlobalBRDS | EV/Automotive | 2021 | $800M | $260M | 67.5% | -100% |
| MatterportMTTR | Technology | 2021 | $500M | $163M | 67.4% | -85% |
| MetromileMILE | Fintech | 2020 | $200M | $67M | 66.5% | -100% |
| TalkspaceTALK | Healthcare | 2021 | $400M | $135M | 66.3% | -75% |
| Desktop MetalDM | Industrials | 2020 | $600M | $209M | 65.2% | -100% |
| Nextdoor HoldingsKIND | Technology | 2021 | $600M | $210M | 65% | -82% |
| MarkforgedMKFG | Industrials | 2021 | $250M | $95M | 62% | -90% |
| BuzzFeedBZFD | Media/Entertainment | 2021 | $600M | $250M | 58.3% | -97% |
| WallboxWBX | EV/Automotive | 2021 | $500M | $210M | 58% | -85% |
| StemSTEM | Clean Energy | 2020 | $800M | $382M | 52.3% | -99.4% |
| WeWorkWE | Real Estate | 2021 | $7.0B | $3.5B | 50% | -100% |
| Microvast HoldingsMVST | EV/Automotive | 2021 | $600M | $310M | 48.3% | -91% |
| Planet Labs PBCPL | Aerospace/Defense | 2021 | $400M | $220M | 45% | -65% |
| Wheels Up ExperienceUP | Aerospace/Defense | 2021 | $2.5B | $1.5B | 40.3% | -85% |
| Porch GroupPRCH | Real Estate | 2020 | $600M | $412M | 31.3% | -75% |
| Cyxtera TechnologiesCYXT | Technology | 2021 | $900M | $700M | 22.2% | -100% |
| Grab HoldingsGRAB | Technology | 2021 | $3.0B | $2.4B | 21.4% | -52% |
| Whole Earth BrandsFREE | Consumer | 2020 | $600M | $480M | 20% | -100% |
| GrindrGRND | Technology | 2022 | $350M | $305M | 12.9% | 40% |
| Playtika HoldingsPLTK | Media/Entertainment | 2021 | $2.8B | $2.5B | 10.7% | -15% |
| Redwire CorporationRDW | Aerospace/Defense | 2021 | $300M | $311M | ✓ Met | 20% |
| Betterware de MéxicoBWMX | Consumer | 2020 | $500M | $750M | ✓ Met | 70% |
| Hims & Hers HealthHIMS | Healthcare | 2020 | $600M | $1.5B | ✓ Met | 320% |
Why Could SPACs Make Wild Projections?
The SPAC structure allowed companies to publish wildly optimistic financial projections that would not be permitted in a traditional IPO due to the PSLRA safe harbor exemption.